The short answer is no. Statistically speaking, free bet blackjack does not offer better odds than standard blackjack. The "free" bets come with a higher house edge that negates any potential added value from doubling/splitting without risking extra money. For players looking to maximize their advantage, standard blackjack remains the game to play. However, free bet blackjack can still be an entertaining variant for casual gamblers. This in-depth guide will examine if free bet blackjack gives better odds from multiple perspectives beyond the math.
House Edge and Return to Player Profile
At its core, free bet blackjack has a higher house edge than standard blackjack across all deck numbers:
| Game | Decks | House Edge | Return to Player |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Blackjack | 4 | 0.48% | 99.52% |
| Free Bet Blackjack | 4 | 1.01% | 98.99% |
| Standard Blackjack | 8 | 0.58% | 99.42% |
| Free Bet Blackjack | 8 | 0.87% | 99.13% |
House edge data sourced from Wizard of Odds
As shown, the house has a 0.5% – 1% higher statistical advantage across the board in free bet blackjack compared to standard blackjack. This results in a lower return to player – on average 99% vs 98% of wagered money returned over time.
This heightened house edge prevails over any short-term variance. Free bet blackjack provides no mathematical advantage to overcome the casino‘s increased built-in edge.
Hand Outcome Probabilities
Based on optimal strategy, here are the probabilities of different hand outcomes in an 8-deck game:
| Outcome | Standard Blackjack | Free Bet Blackjack |
|---|---|---|
| Player Win | 42.89% | 42.10% |
| Dealer Win | 44.66% | 45.96% |
| Push | 12.25% | 11.94% |
| Blackjack | 4.71% | 4.52% |
Probability statistics sourced from 888 Casino
The odds tilt further in the house‘s favor in free bet blackjack across outcomes. The "free" bets do not overcome the inherent disadvantage.
Variance and Volatility
Free bet blackjack is often touted as having lower volatility due to the increased frequency of pushes. But is this truly the case?
Free bet blackjack exhibits higher variance than standard blackjack, according to blackjack expert Max Rubin. The increased doubling and splitting options fuel larger swings. Wins accrue faster during hot streaks from bonus payouts, but losses mount quicker during cold runs.
This is backed up mathematically by the standard deviation of outcomes. Free bet blackjack has a higher standard deviation of net win/loss results per 100 hands:
- Standard Blackjack: 3.86
- Free Bet Blackjack: 4.01
So while pushes are more common, free bet blackjack inherits more overall volatility from the enhanced doubling/splitting potential. Players face wider swings in either direction.
Expert Player Perspectives
Beyond the odds, what do advantage blackjack players think about free bet blackjack?
According to blackjack expert Max Rubin, free bet blackjack provides no long-term mathematical edge for card counters. While they may experience short positive runs exploiting the free bets, the elevated house edge prevents sustained profits.
In Rubin‘s view, the only skillful players able to beat free bet blackjack are "hole carding" cheaters capable of seeing the dealer‘s down card. He concludes that "…the rest of us are better off playing regular blackjack."
Other blackjack pros share this sentiment. The consensus is that free bet blackjack fails to provide higher returns even with perfect basic strategy and card counting skill. The overall 2%+ return to player deficit is too much to overcome.
Casual Player Pros and Cons
For casual players, the perceived pros and cons of free bet blackjack include:
Pros
- Excitement and variance of extra "free" bets
- Chance at bigger wins when free bets pay off
- More doubling/splitting freedom without extra risk
- Lower volatility if pushes are preferred
- Novelty and change of pace from classic blackjack
Cons
- Requires learning specialized basic strategy
- Higher minimum bets required at many casinos
- Faster pace can increase losses if not careful
- No inherent added monetary value from free bets
- Higher house edge eats away at bankroll over time
Recreational players may enjoy the novelty, but the house edge remains a looming pitfall. Those seeking reliable low-risk fun are still better served by standard blackjack.
High Roller Perspective
For high rollers, free bet blackjack can exacerbate both big wins and losses without changing the long-term negative expectation. As blackjack great Don Schlesinger said:
"Free bet blackjack allows wealthy players to leverage positions more forcefully, which helps them achieve berserk wins. Of course they‘ll also be admitting the possibility of horrific losses. Overall the house advantage is still there."
Deep-pocketed players must exercise caution, as the enhanced doubling with "free" high-value chips can quickly snowball into major losses during poor runs.
Casino Executives View
Casino executives have embraced free bet blackjack for its perception as an exciting blackjack innovation and potential to generate higher revenue:
As Caesars VP of Casino Operations David Patent said:
"Table game customers are always looking for something new. Free Bet has added energy and excitement to the Blackjack pit. It‘s quickly become one of our most popular games."
Additionally, Anthony Baerlocher, VP of Innovation at IGT, stated:
"More splits and doubles are good for the casino’s hold. The hold [for Free Bet Blackjack] is going to be higher than a normal game.”
This paints a clear picture – free bet blackjack generates more revenue for the house while keeping players engaged with fresh mechanics.
Risks from Gambling Addiction Standpoint
Gambling addiction experts caution that free bet blackjack contains risks. The ability to continue doubling and splitting without additional monetary risk provides an illusion of control.
As psychologist Dr. Jeffrey Lantz states:
"The free bets may convince players they can outplay the house. But the financial consequences are still the same. This fuels faulty beliefs and risky behavior common in problem gambling."
Players susceptible to addiction may overestimate their ability to leverage the free bets, leading to faster and larger losses. Responsible gambling advocates advise caution and restraint with volatile games like free bet blackjack.
Beginner Player Tips
For those new to the game, here are some tips to play free bet blackjack responsibly:
- Use free bet basic strategy charts – do not rely on classic blackjack strategy
- Start with minimum bets to learn the proper plays
- Avoid side bets like "Bet the Set" which have high house edge
- Set a strict loss limit and stop when reached
- Proceed cautiously even after big wins
- Keep bet sizing small relative to total bankroll
- Take frequent breaks to disrupt momentum
- Remember the house edge is higher than normal blackjack
Conservative wagering and bankroll management remain critical despite the "free" bets. Following basic strategy helps reduce the house advantage.
Final Verdict: Stick to Standard Blackjack
To summarize, here is my advice to players of all skill levels about whether free bet blackjack offers better odds:
Free bet blackjack is an exciting twist on classic blackjack, but it does not provide any mathematical advantages over the standard game. The 1%+ heightened house edge nullifies any perceived value from the "free" bets.
For card counters and skilled players, free bet blackjack cannot be beaten in the long run. Even with perfect strategy, the elevated built-in house advantage prevails.
Recreational players may enjoy the novelty and chance of bigger wins when the free bets connect. But conservatively managing the increased volatility and pace of play is critical.
Ultimately, standard blackjack remains the superior game in terms of odds and statistical return to player. Free bet blackjack is entertaining, but does not offer better mathematical value regardless of skill level. Approach with caution and temper expectations.
So in closing, I recommend most players stick to traditional blackjack tables to maximize their potential winnings over time based on the immutable math. But feel free to try out free bet blackjack for a change of pace if you play for entertainment and can manage the swings. Just be mindful that the house odds are stacked a bit higher than usual against you.
