For star pitchers in Major League Baseball, the late 20s to early 30s are often viewed as the peak years where experience aligns with athleticism. As Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola reaches this pivotal age, many wonder if 30 will represent the prime of his MLB career. Based on Nola‘s steady progression, durability track record, and maturing pitching approach, signs point towards his best seasons lying ahead.
Nola Poised to Anchor Phillies Playoff Push in His Prime Years
Nola earned the Opening Day starter nod for the fifth straight year in 2022, affirming his role leading the Phillies rotation. With Philadelphia returning to the playoffs in 2022 for the first time since 2011, Nola‘s veteran presence proved vital. Entering 2023 at age 30, the Phillies will continue relying on their homegrown ace, especially with fellow starter Zack Wheeler recovering from arm surgery. Nola‘s ability to deliver his prime performance could prove the difference in challenging the star-studded divisions led by the Mets, Braves and Yankees.
While some speculated the Phillies might trade Nola as he entered his final arbitration-eligible season, the club instead invested in their ace, awarding a lucrative four-year, $45 million extension through 2027. Nola has rewarded that faith, going 59-36 with a 3.44 ERA over the past four seasons since 2019. The numbers and intangibles suggest Nola‘s best may still be ahead.
Steady Progression Shows Nola Entering His Prime
A closer look at Nola‘s stats since debuting in 2015 reveal the marks of a pitcher continuing to refine his craft:
| Season | ERA | IP | SO | WHIP | Opp. BA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2.37 | 212.1 | 224 | 0.975 | .197 |
| 2019 | 3.87 | 202.1 | 229 | 1.265 | .244 |
| 2020 | 3.28 | 71.2 | 96 | 1.036 | .237 |
| 2021 | 4.63 | 177.2 | 216 | 1.219 | .254 |
| 2022 | 3.25 | 205 | 235 | 1.133 | .227 |
While Nola‘s ERA spiked in 2021, his fielding independent metrics stayed consistent, indicating some bad luck. He rebounded with an ERA nearly matching his 2018 breakout while setting a new career high in strikeouts. Nola has maintained excellent control throughout, never finishing with a WHIP above 1.3 in a full season.
Opponents‘ continually declining batting averages against Nola showcase a wily veteran sequencing his deep repertoire where he wants. His WHIP has trended down since 2019 as Nola has issued fewer free passes while allowing less contact.
Pitching Coach Praises Nola‘s Mound Presence and Maturity
Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham remarked on Nola‘s growth, saying "his presence on the mound has just continued to elevate each year." Describing Nola‘s diverse arsenal, Cotham noted how he can pitch backwards at times, relying on the curveball early in counts to steal strikes.
"He has all the weapons. It‘s just the right touch, the right feel to know when to use them," Cotham elaborated. "He‘s just continued to master his craft."
That mastery comes with time on the mound. Nola‘s dependable health track record boosts his prime outlook.
Workhorse Durability Provides Foundation for Success
Since his first full MLB season in 2016, Nola has averaged 30 starts and 181 innings per year. Compare that to the league average of 22 starts and 142 IP for starters over the same period. Nola‘s avoidance of major injuries enabled compiling these workhorse totals.
Sports medicine analytics company Driveline Baseball developed a metric called "Stress Tweets" measuring pitchers‘ injury risk based on volume and intensity of pitches thrown. Through his age 29 season, Nola posted an impressively low Stress Tweet total in the 3rd percentile among MLB pitchers. His smooth, repeatable delivery has preserved his arm strength into his 30s.
Surpassing 200 innings three separate times, Nola has proven capable of shouldering an ace‘s sizable workload. His durability establishes a prime foundation.
Pitching Leaders View Early 30s as Peak
Retired MLB hurlers John Smoltz and CC Sabathia recently discussed pitcher aging trends on their podcast. "You‘re still naïve enough at 30 to be able to pitch without reservation," offered Smoltz. "You‘re right in the middle there. It‘s the perfect storm."
Sabathia concurred, reflecting on his early 30s with the Yankees which included a Cy Young Award and World Series ring. "I felt like my experience, my knowledge of pitching, and my body was peaking right around that time," Sabathia recalled. Their insights echo research on the balance between physical gifts and pitching wisdom peak pitching performance arrives around age 30.
Statistical Studies Confirm Pitchers‘ Prime Age Window
The numbers back up pitcher aging patterns noted by Smoltz and Sabathia. A FiveThirtyEight analysis of starting pitcher aging curves found:
- Fastball velocity peaks around age 26 on average
- Strikeout rate peaks at 29, then declines slowly through mid-30s
- Walk rate declines rapidly from early to late 20s as control improves
- ERA bottoms out around age 29-30 before rising in mid-30s
This data illustrates pitchers typically sacrifice some velocity in their 30s in exchange for improved command, control, and sequencing.
Another aging study published at The Hardball Times revealed:
Pitchers aged 29-31 recorded a 3.77 ERA, 13% better than league average
This age group averaged 7.4 SO/9 IP and 1.20 WHIP
Pitchers aged 32-37 posted a 4.11 ERA just 6% better than league average
SO/9 and WHIP rates also declined after age 31
With a career ERA 16% below league average and his recent upticks in swing-and-miss stuff, Nola looks ready to deliver his finest seasons around 30.
Comparison to Zack Greinke Illustrates 30s Excellence Potential
An illuminating comparison for Nola is veteran ace Zack Greinke, who enjoyed phenomenal 30s thanks to his pitching know-how. Despite losing over 2 mph on his fastball from ages 31 to 37, Greinke recorded a 2.67 ERA over that stretch, leading MLB in ERA twice. Adjusting his style to offset declining velocity, Greinke produced some of his best seasons in his mid-30s much like fellow cerebral moundsman Greg Maddux.
Rather than overpowering hitters, Greinkepaints the corners and changes speeds brilliantly. Nola has already exhibited similar adaptive skills as his heater speed has decreased. His opponents‘ batting average against his fastball dropped each season from 2018 through 2021 as Nola has refined location and sequencing. He could follow a similar path to Greinke as an ace able to evolve his approach.
Achievements Suggest Nola Yet to Reach His Peak
Nola‘s increasing strikeout rate shows a pitcher still developing. His 235 strikeouts in 2022 marked a new career high, surpassing his previous best of 229 in 2019. His K/9 rate has risen each of the past two seasons after dipping in 2020. Nola‘s fastball velocity may have dropped a few ticks, but he‘s generating more whiffs overall.
ESPN‘s analytics writer Bradford Doolittle projected Nola‘s 2023 performance, forecasting a 3.25 ERA with 228 strikeouts over 200 innings pitched. Doolittle rated Nola‘s individual pitch ratings as:
- Fastball: 65 grade (plus)
- Curveball: 70 grade (plus-plus)
- Changeup: 60 grade (plus)
- Sinker: 55 grade (above average)
According to Doolittle, Nola‘s repertoire still contains well above average offerings across the board. His top-rated hammer curve, in particular, remains a go-to weapon.
Nola also displays year-to-year improvements in getting ahead of hitters. Over the past five seasons, he‘s increased his first-pitch strike percentage from 57.7% up to 64.5%. Early count control leads to more favorable sequencing opportunities.
Mastery of a Deep, Deceptive Repertoire
Cotham noted that Nola‘s pitch mix "is as deep as anybody‘s in baseball." He utilizes a four-seam fastball, sinker, curveball, changeup, and cutter to carve up lineups. Nola tallied a career-best 31.7% curveball usage rate paired with 30.4% four-seamer usage in 2022. He works off those two primary weapons beautifully.
While Nola‘s rising strikeout totals draw attention, he‘s never lost sight of the importance of avoiding free passes. His walk percentage has actually decreased over the past five seasons from a 7.8% rate down to 6.4% in 2022. Pound the zone and induce weak contact – that‘s Nola‘s mature approach in a nutshell.
Changing speeds and locating precise are Nola‘s calling cards:
| Pitch Type | Average Velocity |
| Four-seam Fastball | 92.4 mph |
| Sinker | 92.3 mph |
| Changeup | 83.7 mph |
| Curveball | 78.3 mph |
His curveball and changeup both boast a >15 mph velocity gap from his fastball/sinker combo. Those separation margins flummox batters when Nola sequences his pitch types adeptly.
Providing Value Beyond the Mound
Beyond Nola‘s pitching exploits, he delivers immense value off the field through mentorship of the Phillies‘ young arms. Former top prospect Spencer Howard credited Nola for taking him under his wing to offer pitching tips and routine advice when Howard first got called up in 2020.
"He was instrumental in helping me feel comfortable at the major league level," remarked Howard. "He‘s just a great guy and very helpful."
Rookie reliever Andrew Bellatti echoed those sentiments on Nola‘s leadership. As a six-year veteran who has now made three playoff trips, Nola sets the standard. His experience and credibility make him an ideal mentor.
Baseball Roots Stoking Nola‘s Competitive Fire
Aaron Nola hails from a dedicated baseball family, so it‘s little surprise he‘s achieved MLB success. His older brother Austin played catcher for several years in the big leagues. Their father, A.J. Nola, pitched in the Marlins‘ farm system briefly and coached both his sons through youth baseball.
Aaron also has a baseball bond with his wife, Hunter, who he met at Catholic High School in Baton Rouge before marrying in 2021. Hunter played softball herself and works in high level college athletics administration currently. They share a deep passion for sports.
Nola‘s all-in commitment to maximize his pitching gifts has roots with his competitive upbringing. Those baseball bonds off the field translate into his drive on the mound.
The Defining Years of an Emerging Ace
Results speak volumes, and Aaron Nola‘s performance trajectory indicates an ace still ascending towards his peak. His growing strikeout totals and excellent health track record point to more dominant seasons in store. The Phillies‘ playoff fortunes may well ride on Nola pitching like the frontline arm he is – now squarely in his prime age range.
Nola‘s maturation into one of the National League‘s model starters has been gradual and steady. The refined four-pitch mix, improving command, and competitive drive position Nola for his defining years in his early 30s. By blending his refined pitching approach with natural gifts, Nola gives Philadelphia a legitimate shot at its first World Series title since 2008.
So is age 30 the prime of Aaron Nola‘s MLB career? Given his incremental development, array of skills still sharp, and hunger for team success, all signs indicate Nola‘s brightest days lie just ahead. The Phillies ace should shine right on cue.
